Election 2020 Preview Recap

Goldman Sachs preview to the Presidential Election, September 14, 2020 Recap

RJ attended a webinar “Preview to the Presidential Election” this week with three political experts representing both democratic and republican parties. The focus of the meeting was how polls can be deceiving and how either candidate could win. They also talked about mail in voting and how social unrest could be stoked after the election if there is no clear winner. Also, Goldman Sachs predicts a spike in market volatility associated with the election immediately afterwards, especially since a majority of people polled expect we will know the winner the night of the election and many more expect we will know by the following day – that just doesn’t appear likely.  Below are the notes and highlights from this meeting.

Political Experts

Amy Walter, National Editor at The Cook Political Report

Mike Allen, Co-Founder and Executive Editor of Axios

Van Jones, CEO at Reform Alliance

Amy:  Trump support has not improved beyond his base, which is a big problem for him.  When things are perceived to be going well his approval rating peaks around 45%.  When things are not going well, they only dip to about 41%.  His base will not leave him for any reason.

There is no viable 3^rd party candidate this year (last election Johnson ran).  Johnson took enough votes in swing states last election to make a difference.  Those who voted for 3^rd party last election are currently going to Biden 55/45, which could make a difference.  Trump only won Michigan by 10,000 votes in 2016.

Mike:  Trump is trailing in most swing states. Bloomberg is dumping 100M into Florida because they know if Biden wins Florida it is pretty much over. Two-thirds of people polled believe the country is moving in the wrong direction – this is a large number and incumbents do not generally fair well with these types of numbers. Trump voters view an attack on Trump as an attack on themselves.  Mike worries about civil unrest after the election if Trump loses.

Van:  Democrats have PTSD from the last election, they believe Trump won because many people stayed home and did not vote because the media said Clinton had it locked up. They worry if Biden is ahead in the polls at election time this could happen again. Really worried about mail in voting, 11% of Trump supporters plan to vote by mail and 47% of Biden supporters plan to vote by mail.  Mail in votes are not counted until the day after and mail in ballots have a MUCH higher discard rate (people forget to sign, don’t date it, etc.).  It took Arizona over a week to count all the mail in votes from the last presidential election – it could be worse this year.  Van worries that Trump will look like he is winning in a landslide due to in person voting and he will claim victory. If Biden ends up winning after the mail in votes are counted Trump could dispute election.  The Russians could use this as an opportunity to stoke civil unrest via social media and claim the election was stolen – could be an epic disaster.  More blacks voted in 2012 than in 2008 because they were inspired by Obama – he won his 2^nd election with a much wider margin than the polls suggested because these were pretty much first-time voters. Will this happen for Trump this year?  Will there be more first-time voters that are inspired by Trump and who are not being captured in the polls because they are not expected to vote? Sixty-five percent of those who did not vote in the last election in WI, OH and MI do not have a college degree – these people support Trump 65/35. If they vote this time it could be a big deal.  Trump voters will crawl through broken glass for him – black district voters may have to stand in line for up to 12-14 hours (which was the case during primary election in the south). Will they, especially if the media and polls predict a Biden victory?

If neither candidate gets enough electoral votes the election goes to the House of Representatives, which is heavily skewed to Republicans because each state delegation gets a vote, not each member of congress and there are more republican states in the House, but less members due to population. If it goes to the House, Trump wins easily.

One thing we can count on is the wild ride we are in store for over the next several weeks leading up to Nov. 3^rd and afterwards.

Be sure to vote! https://www.usa.gov/how-to-vote

Take care and stay safe,

The Bond&Devick Team