July 2024 Update: Bull Moose

Here Come the Conventions! 

The Republican National Convention kicks off today in Milwaukee. 112 years ago, former President Theodore Roosevelt was campaigning for President in Milwaukee, he was shot in the chest right before he went onstage at a campaign event.  Frustrated with the direction of his party, he founded his own party called the Progressive or “Bull Moose” party.  President Roosevelt did not win the election, but he did do better than the Republican nominee, Willaim Taft, as both were bested by Woodrow Wilson.  

This past weekend, former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt at his last rally before heading off to Milwaukee.  Roosevelt was saved by his 100-page speech that was in his breast pocket and Donald Trump’s ear was scratched by the bullet of a high-power rifle shot from a nearby roof. 

The craziness around this election was already at a fevered pitch as President Biden confronts members of his own party demanding he step aside and let someone else run.  The assassination attempt will certainly kick things up a notch and with it will probably come increased stock market volatility leading up to the November 5th election (and most likely beyond). 

While the media is in full frenzy mode, the bond market has been digesting recent encouraging inflation data. Interest rates have fallen steadily over the past month as it appears the Federal Reserve will have the green light to reduce interest rates at its September meeting.  Mortgage rates have fallen below 7% and bonds have rallied as their prices move inversely to the movement in interest rates. 

Falling interest rates tend to make riskier investments more attractive.  Emerging markets stocks have been up almost 6% over the past few weeks and small cap stocks appear to have turned the corner as well.  International stocks have rebounded as the US dollar has depreciated. Further, high-tech flyers saw significant drops as investors may finally look to take profits and reallocate into segments of the market that appear less expensive – areas like international stocks, small cap stocks and value stocks.  It is too early to tell if this is the start of a long-term trend, but balanced and diversified portfolios have performed quite well over the past several weeks in relation to large cap growth stocks. 

Our country has been through many difficult elections, periods of economic uncertainty, and market volatility.  We believe staying balanced and diversified continues to be the best method to build and maintain wealth over time. Please feel welcome to call or email us if you have any questions regarding your portfolio or situation. 

Enjoy the rest of your summer and be well. 

The Bond&Devick Team