March 3, 2026 Update: Iran Conflict

Bond & Devick’s roots date back to 1982. At that time, the United States was engaged in combat operations in Lebanon during the Lebanese Civil War. Since then, America has been involved in conflicts ranging from Grenada, Panama, Iraq, Somalia, Haiti, the former Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and many other places. Each time clients reach out to us to see how these conflicts might impact their portfolio.

JP Morgan published a research piece in May of 2024 with some interesting conclusions. Using 80+ years of data (from 1940-2022), their analysis found that the overall market tends to underperform in the first 3 months after a geopolitical conflict. However, 6- and 12-month returns were statistically identical to periods with no geopolitical event.

During times of conflict, it is difficult to focus on returns and portfolios while people’s lives are lost and threatened. Looking beyond the tragic human element, it may be that the American and Israeli attack on Iran could create market uncertainty and volatility over the short-term, but if history is any indication, that volatility may be short-lived. Of course, much depends on the duration and severity of the conflict. As we saw with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a spike in oil prices can trigger unwanted inflation that can have profound impacts on both the stock and bond markets. This bears careful attention, and we will closely monitor the situation. Diversification has often helped soften the impact of market turbulence during a crisis, and we believe this time is no different.